The preparation of major AI startups for public capital markets is taking place amid the intensifying competition for both investment and sustainable business models. The Anthropic IPO, expected in October 2026, aims for a potential raise of over $60 billion, positioning it as one of the largest debuts in tech history. The company focuses on the corporate segment and has a more transparent monetization model than OpenAI, which is also anticipated to appear on the IPO calendar this year, making the developer of Claude more attractive to investors. However, the industry’s capital-intensive nature remains clear: a significant portion of previously raised funds, including approximately $30 billion, is already allocated for infrastructure development and data center construction in particular, further heightening the pressure for future profitability.
At the same time, the planned IPO faces substantial regulatory risks. A recent federal court ruling, blocking Pentagon restrictions on the company, temporarily alleviates the pressure but does not eliminate the uncertainty. Potential appeals and ongoing disputes with government agencies continue to threaten access to federal contracts — a critical revenue stream. As a result, the legal environment becomes a factor that directly affects both the company’s valuation and investor appetite.
A broader context for AI companies’ valuations is also being shaped by the state of related industries — most notably the memory market. Recent technological initiatives, such as Google’s TurboQuant compression method, are already influencing investor expectations regarding infrastructure demand. The sharp decline in share prices for SK hynix, Samsung Electronics, and Micron Technology following the announcement of the new technology highlights the market’s sensitivity to any signals that could disrupt the balance of supply and demand. While long-term fundamentals such as memory shortage and rising prices remain intact, this reaction underscores how heavily AI sector valuations depend on expectations around infrastructure costs.
This adds further pressure to the investment narrative surrounding the IPO. While the growth of AI companies was previously perceived as a linear function of rising computing power and hardware demand, investors are increasingly considering the potential for infrastructure cost optimization. With the widespread adoption of technologies that enhance memory and computational efficiency, capital expenditures may grow more slowly than expected, directly affecting market expansion rates and company revenue forecasts.
These factors add complexity to the investment landscape for the AI sector. Anthropic and its competitors continue to attract significant capital and demonstrate growth potential through enterprise solutions and infrastructure scaling. At the same time, the risks associated with regulatory uncertainty, dependence on external financing, and shifts in the technological assumptions underpinning demand for key components are increasing. Moving forward, business model sustainability, strategic access to contracts, and the ability to adapt to a changing AI infrastructure economy will play key roles in determining long-term value.
