The IEM Cologne Major 2026 turned out to be one of the most unpredictable tournaments of the season. Underdogs’ runs and favourites’ eliminations shattered thousands of Pick’Em predictions faster than most fans had time to react to the match results. After the event concluded, it became clear: this time, the standard logic behind predicting outcomes in Counter-Strike 2 wasn’t working.
Thousands of players who had meticulously analysed team statistics on HLTV, results from previous tournaments and the form of individual players saw their predictions literally crumble after a few sensational matches. In this article, we’ll discuss the main surprises of the IEM Cologne Major 2026 and their impact on Pick’Em.
Why Did So Many Favorite Teams Collapse During The Cologne Group Stage?
Before the tournament began, many fans made their predictions as to who the favourites would be. For the most part, these were top-tier teams that consistently qualify for the play-offs of S-tier tournaments. However, one of the main reasons for the failure of Pick’Em was the overestimation of the favourites. From Stage 2 onwards, it became clear that the classic prediction strategy was not effective in this tournament.
A striking example was the progression of FlyQuest, BIG and mibr to the second stage of the tournament. From that point on, all cs2 esports coverage platforms began to be more cautious with their predictions. In Stage 2, the situation changed: some of the top teams struggled to adapt to their opponents’ styles, whilst others made a large number of individual errors in decisive rounds. At this stage of the tournament, well-known teams such as GamerLegion and Astralis were eliminated.
According to HLTV and Liquipedia, the trend of a number of teams from the top 15 world rankings completed the tournament much earlier than predicted by most users. In addition, some teams showed open and aggressive Counter-Strike in previous tournaments, and at Cologne they switched to more cautious schemes. Which, in turn, also became one of the main factors in the destruction of Pick’Em cards around the world.
Which Upsets Had The Biggest Impact On Pick’Em Predictions?
When talking about the surprises at IEM Cologne 2026, the first thing that springs to mind is BIG’s fantastic comeback in their match against NRG for a place in Stage 2. The team were trailing 0–12, but managed to level the score at 12–12, take the match into overtime and win 16–12. This was the first comeback from 0–12 in the history of professional CS2.
Also particularly telling were the series where the favourites lost on their own best maps. Teams with a high win rate on Mirage and Ancient at this tournament had the upper hand, and if their opponents picked those maps, they had a better chance of winning.
Analyzing the chances of the teams in Stage 3, most players put on the passage of favorites such as NAVI, FUT or Vitality. However, Natus Vincere and FUT Esports unexpectedly played with a score of 2-3 and did not pass in Playoffs, which destroyed most of Pick’Ems.
Interestingly, some underdogs showed more than just random victories. While watching matches, one could notice high-quality preparation for specific opponents. Teams successfully used non-standard timings, new variants of setups and quickly adjusted strategies in case of failures.
Why Traditional Pick’Em Analysis Failed This Time
Usually successful Pick’Em are built on three key factors: the current form of the team, the current statistics of the cards and the results of face-to-face confrontations. At IEM Cologne 2026, these indicators turned out to be less reliable than users expected.
Firstly, a significant number of teams were taking part in the tournament for the first time. Even if a team had shown consistent results at A- or S-tier tournaments, that did not necessarily mean they would perform well at a Major.
Secondly, the individual performances of the players played a significant role. Some esports players unexpectedly delivered their best performances, whilst others, conversely, underperformed. A rating above 1.30 in knockout matches during the early stages of the tournament often proved to be a decisive factor that even the most detailed predictions could not foresee.
Thirdly, some analysts relied too heavily on HLTV rankings. The history of Counter-Strike has repeatedly shown that a team’s ranking does not always reflect its true strength in a particular tournament. The IEM Cologne Major 2026 once again confirmed this rule.
Which Playoffs Pick’Em Ruled the Bracket?
The main lesson from the IEM Cologne Major 2026 is that overconfidence in the favourites can prove costly. Even teams regarded as title contenders were knocked out in the early stages when they came up against well-prepared opponents.
When creating Pick’Em for Playoffs, attention was paid not only to ratings, but also to stylistic matches. Sometimes a team with a lower position in the ranking had every chance to win due to a convenient pool of cards or the peculiarities of its game against a particular opponent, which was seen repeatedly in the early stages of the tournament.
Another conclusion concerns psychology. Major tournaments create additional pressure even for experienced teams. Players can show great statistics during the season, but the situation on the Major stage changes dramatically. That is why it was necessary to analyze not only the numbers, but also the ability of the team to perform under maximum pressure.
While early playoff stages saw strong runs from teams like FURIA and Aurora Gaming reaching the Semifinals, and initial favorites like Vitality, FURIA, and G2 Esports drew a lot of attention, the final bracket completely defied expectations. Ultimately, it was Team Falcons who overcame all the odds, delivered a stellar performance, and officially won the tournament, leaving the majority of traditional Playoff Pick’Em predictions completely ruined.
Conclusion
The IEM Cologne Major 2026 has once again proved that no rankings, statistics or predictions can guarantee the correct outcome. A series of unexpected eliminations of favourites during the group stage of the tournament shattered a huge number of Pick’Em predictions and became the main topic of discussion amongst Counter-Strike 2 fans. If you want to make a truly successful Pick’Em in the future, it’s worth not only analysing the figures, but also understanding the context, the teams’ performances this season and the specific characteristics of the tournament in question. That is precisely why every new Major continues to surprise even the most experienced analysts and makes esports unpredictable and exciting.
