Stargate Signals a New Phase in the AI Investment Cycle

The Stargate megaproject, initiated by the Trump administration, was conceived as a symbol of US technological sovereignty and an infrastructural breakthrough in the field of AI. OpenAI, Oracle, and SoftBank have announced plans to allocate at least $500 billion to build data centers in the United States, and in the future, the scale of investments could approach $1.4 trillion over eight years. However, the high-profile figures hide managerial contradictions, and for a long time the partners could not agree on who would control the built facilities and how to allocate operational rights.

Initially, OpenAI expected to manage the infrastructure independently and introduce up to 10 GW of capacity within three years. But the need for capital forced the company to soften its stance. Oracle has already promised to deploy an infrastructure for 2 million accelerators, and OpenAI has committed to purchasing $300 billion worth of capacity from it over five years. To finance the construction, Oracle resorted to the debt market by placing bonds. Thus, infrastructure expansion actually relies not only on venture capital but also on classical debt financing instruments.

Amid the news about Stargate financing and new OpenAI rounds, the reaction of Nasdaq 100 futures has intensified, which is increasingly showing heightened sensitivity to any reports of capital expenditures in the AI sector. Since technology companies account for a large share of the index, changes in expectations for infrastructure budgets, debt burden, or capacity commissioning rates are instantly reflected in the dynamics of futures. Thus, the derivatives market actually becomes an indicator of whether investors believe in the stability of the current investment cycle or are starting to anticipate an overheating scenario.

The Middle East vector is developing in a separate line. Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, is negotiating a new funding round of up to $50 billion. Gulf sovereign wealth funds invested tens of billions of dollars in AI and digital infrastructure in 2025, viewing the sector as a strategic asset. The partnership with G42 and plans to create a 5GW cluster in Abu Dhabi turn the region into an important element of the global AI architecture and diversify Stargate’s sources of capital.

SoftBank remains the key financial donor. Back in the spring, the corporation promised to invest $30 billion in OpenAI, and by the end of the year, it was forced to urgently mobilize liquidity through the sale of shares, potential loans secured by Arm securities, and the redistribution of Vision Fund resources. This week, the remaining $22.5 billion was transferred, and SoftBank’s total investment in OpenAI reached $41 billion. As a result, the Japanese group received about 11% of the startup’s capital, which, according to estimates at the beginning of the year, was worth $260 billion and has since risen significantly in price.

The financial structure of the project is becoming more and more complex. OpenAI plans to commission up to 30 GW of computing power, while each gigawatt requires more than $40 billion in capital expenditures. At the same time, transactions are structured in such a way that a significant part of the risks are distributed between investors and partners, and the company itself minimizes the direct debt burden. In fact, a multi-level system of cross-financing is being formed, where venture capital is combined with bonds, bank loans, and government incentives.

This model is causing increasingly more discussions about the possible overheating of the sector. If two years ago the main investors in AI were technology giants, now debt obligations and sovereign wealth funds are becoming the most important sources of funds. Money is beginning to form outside the tech sector itself, which reinforces the systemic importance of the industry for the global financial market.

This adds to ongoing concerns over the investment cycle’s durability and whether heavy investment in the AI sector is justified, keeping markets cautious and sensitive. For instance, despite Nvidia reporting revenue above analysts’ expectations, the market reaction was muted: the company’s shares rose just over 1% following the earnings release, while S&P 500 futures were nearly flat.

In this context, Stargate is not just an infrastructure project but a test of the sustainability of the entire AI investment model. Its implementation will determine whether the market will be able to digest trillions of capital expenditures without forming a bubble or the rapid growth of valuations and debt burden will trigger a more severe revaluation of assets in the coming years.