By this time last year, I was sleeping peacefully knowing that most if not all of my picks for the 96th Academy Awards was locked. I ended up going 21/23, and dominated my local awards pool. This year couldn’t be more different, delivering one of the most chaotic Oscar races I’ve seen in my lifetime. Almost every above the line category is up for grabs, with no clear frontrunner except for Best Supporting Actor.
The precursors have been all over the place, sending prognosticators back the drawing board with every surprise win and snub. Racist tweets, AI accents and architecture, the absence of intimacy coordinators has made the 97th Academy Awards race a cacophony of guesswork, bucking statistics and leaving even the best predictor in complete confusion.
Nevertheless, the 97th annual Oscars happen THIS weekend, and picks need to be made. I only feel good about a few categories, and while I’m willing to stand by my decisions I can be swayed by a compelling argument almost anywhere in any category. But with the clock ticking, here are my predictions for the major above the line categories and few I’m invested in. Enjoy!
Best Picture – “Anora“
There is a strong chance that “Conclave” pulls the upset here, but the late surge and key wins for “Anora” after a rocky start leads me to believe it will take home the statue here. My favorite film of 2024 “Nickel Boys” was basically shut out, so the “Anora” is the next best thing in this category. Nothing will really surprise me here, but I think I’ve chosen the likely winner.
Best Actress – Mikey Madison for “Anora“
I know the fervor for Demi Moore in “The Substance” is strong, and she’s been campaigning like a professional and really not missing a single step. But after the unbelievable fall from grace that was Karla Sofia Gascon, Mikey Madison for “Anora” checks a lot of boxes for the frontrunner winner. I wouldn’t be upset if Moore snagged a win here, though. It would be deserved and a loss I’d gladly take, but I think this is Madison’s to lose.
Best Actor – Adrien Brody for “The Brutalist“
I’m a Brutal Boy and have been rooting for it to win big for pretty much the entire season. But “The Brutalist” has been hindered by length and nearly impossible to see, and while people are constantly being won over by Timothée Chalamet (who is really good in a largely forgettable movie) I think this is all by locked up for Adrien Brody. The SAG win for Chalamet is a bit of wrench in the asurdness, but I ultimately think nothing can stop Brody from winning in this category. Come Sunday night, Adrien Brody will be a two time Oscar winner.
Best Supporting Actress – Zoe Saldaña for “Emilia Perez“
I know how we all feel about “Emilia Perez,” and while I didn’t hate the film as much as everyone else the even the harshest criticisms are valid. And no other film has been mired in controversy as bad as this one, but Zoe Saldaña has remained unscathed. She has handled the whole debacle expertly, and has managed to distance herself from most of it without hurting her chances to win. I know many of us would love to see Ariana Grande to win for “Wicked,” but generally speaking (outside music biopics for some reason) the Academy generally thumbs their nose at musicals. Saldana is the best part of a pretty bad movie, and I think that will be enough to get her the win.
Best Supporting Actor – Kieran Culkin for “A Real Pain“
This is the only no brainer of the entire ceremony. Kieran Culkin has simply not missed a single precursor, much like Da’Vine Joy Randolph for “The Holdovers” last year. There’s not much else to say about this category or this performance. Culkin is simply phenomenal in “A Real Pain,” and with an incredible script and excellently written character this is a surefire win.
Best Director – Sean Baker for “Anora“
My heart pick is Coralie Fargeat for “The Substance,” which in my opinion is the best directed film of the year. But the track record for a lone female director nomination is egregiously scarce, and I’m unfortunately not an Academy voter and need to pick with my logic, not my heart. For that, this award is almost surely going to Sean Baker for “Anora.” I know we mentioned the crazy, unhelpful precursors and this category isn’t that much different. But Baker won the top DGA honor, and typically he who wins his guild wins the Oscar here.
Best International Feature – “Emilia Perez“
I wish I could say that it will be any other film on the list, and my hopedicting wants to join the groundswell for “I’m Still Here.” But I can’t shake this feeling that for all of the controversy surrounding the film, “Emila Perez” is the clear frontrunner for this category. It shouldn’t be, and any of the other films deserve to win over it. However, you don’t rack up 13 nominations and go home empty handed, especially in categories that don’t have real competition until recently. It’s a bold pick, but I believe come Oscar night “Emilia Perez” will end up taking 3 statues home out of its 13 nominations.
Best Animated Feature – “The Wild Robot“
Again, my heart is for “Flow,” an incredible film that feels fresh and beautiful and captivating. “The Wild Robot” is terrific as well, and I won’t be upset with it winning which is why I’m picking it here. Chris Sanders is a legend in the animated space, and this is his night to be honored for his work. I would love to be wrong about this if it does indeed go to “Flow,” but this is one category I don’t see an upset happening.
So those are my picks for most of the above the line categories. Conan O’Brien will host 97th Academy Awards. There ceremony will take place Sunday, March 2nd and will air on ABC, and for the first time in Oscars history, will be available to stream on Hulu. Keep an eye out for Nerdbot’s live coverage.
