The Final Quarter of 2024: Economic Forecasts and Global Policy Updates

September: Economic Activity Resumes

September marks a key period for economic policy, particularly with the central bank meetings on the horizon. In the United States, inflation may have eased as a result of previous rate hikes, so the Fed might choose to hold rates steady or even consider a cut if the economy shows signs of significant slowing.

With moderate or decelerating inflation, the ECB could focus on unconventional measures to stimulate the economy, such as adjustments to asset purchase programmes, rather than making major changes to interest rates.

This makes September an important month on the economic data calendar, as the decisions made by central banks will set the tone for the remainder of the year.

October: China’s Economy and U.S. Elections

The Chinese economy remains a key variable, especially as third-quarter economic growth data and any measures to achieve growth targets come into focus. Action taken by the Chinese government to support the economy — whether through large-scale investments or fiscal policy — will have a ripple effect on global markets.

In the U.S., October 2024 will be dominated by the upcoming presidential election. The election in November 2024 will play a significant role in shaping future US economic policy, as the newly elected president’s platform will define the priorities for public spending, taxation and financial regulation in the years to come.

November: Economic Forecasts and the G20 Summit

In November, world leaders will gather for the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro. This meeting offers an opportunity for the leaders of the world’s major economies to address issues such as international economic cooperation or climate challenges. Discussions on international trade, global tax reforms and the energy transition are expected to dominate the agenda.

In addition, the IMF and OECD will release their economic forecasts for 2025 in the fall. These reports will provide valuable insight into growth, employment, inflation, and global imbalances, helping policymakers shape their economic and monetary strategies.

December: Reviewing 2024 and Preparing for 2025

December is usually a pivotal month for the financial markets and central banks. The Fed and the ECB will hold meetings at the end of the year to assess the year’s economic performance, with decisions likely based on growth and inflation data from prior months. The Fed could adjust rates in response to recessionary risks or maintain a cautious approach if the economy shows signs of stabilization.

In Europe, the ECB is also expected to proceed cautiously, closely monitoring the resilience of the eurozone’s economy and inflation trends. Portfolio adjustments and forecasts for 2025 will depend largely on these central banks’ signals.