The Pentagon is currently tracking a suspected Chinese spy balloon that has been flying over the USA. The balloon has been spotted over Montana, which houses several sensitive nuclear sites, and other northern states. Pentagon spokesman Brig. Gen. Patrick Ryder confirmed the US government has been tracking the balloon for several days now.
But it is “traveling at an altitude well above commercial air traffic and does not present a military or physical threat to people on the ground.” President Joe Biden was briefed on the situation. He was strongly advised by senior military leaders, including the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley, not to shoot it down.
“Why not shoot it down? We have to do the risk-reward here,” the official said. “So the first question is, does it pose a threat, a physical kinetic threat, to individuals in the United States in the US homeland? Our assessment is it does not. Does it pose a threat to civilian aviation? Our assessment is it does not. Does it pose a significantly enhanced threat on the intelligence side? Our best assessment right now is that it does not. So given that profile, we assess the risk of downing it, even if the probability is low in a sparsely populated area of the debris falling and hurting someone or damaging property, that it wasn’t worth it.”
Earlier coverage implies they were planning to shoot it down. Given reports about a ground stop at Billings Airport in Montana, these stops were to mobilize assets including F-22s, which are stealth tactical fighter aircrafts. Those efforts were to “put some things on station in the event that a decision was made to bring this down while it was over Montana,” the official said. “So we wanted to make sure we were coordinating with civil authorities to empty out the airspace around that potential area.” Basically just trying to cover all bases in case something about the situation changed.
While no one can seem to confirm the function of the balloon they do know its origins. “We are confident that this high-altitude surveillance balloon belongs to the [People’s Republic of China],” the senior defense official said. “Instances of this activity have been observed over the past several years, including prior to this administration.” The cause for alarm here is that its current flight path takes it over several sensitive sites. Though officials still believe given its design and altitude that it has “limited additive value” from an intelligence collection perspective.
On February 3rd, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson claimed the balloon entered US airspace accidentally. “It is a civilian airship used for research, mainly meteorological, purposes,” the spokesperson said in a statement. “Affected by the Westerlies and with limited self-steering capability, the airship deviated far from its planned course. The Chinese side regrets the unintended entry of the airship into US airspace due to force majeure.”
Unintentional or not relations between the US and China are already strained and the timing couldn’t be worse. Considering Secretary of State Antony Blinken is expected to travel to Beijing soon, to follow up on a meeting Biden had last year with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Senior director of the Atlantic Council’s GeoEconomics Center, Josh Lipsky confirmed that the US wanted to make it clear to China that officials knew about the balloon before Blinken arrived. “It sets the state for [an] extraordinary tense meeting between Blinken and Qin Gang [Chinese foreign minister],” says Lipsky. “It puts Chinese officials on the backfoot heading into the meetings.”
The Canadian government has also confirmed it is currently monitoring the situation.
