It’s been a strange year for the Oscars. Not necessarily in terms of snubs or close races, but more so in just how predictable the winners seem heading into the final stretch. More than ever, the amount precursors and awards prognosticators have been painting a clearer and clearer picture of what we can expect on March 10th. What is perhaps most telling is how consistent the winners have been throughout the season. Sure, there’s been some surprises, but overall, the atomic bomb has been set off and seems to show no signs of letting someone else build a bigger bomb. At least not this year.
“Oppenheimer” has been the clear front runner for months now. Not just in the technical achievements, but in a majority of the above the line categories as well. With few exceptions, it has been sweeping through awards show after awards show, asserting its dominance over the field.
As with award shows, anything can happen. Yeah, it looks like the race is over before it even began. It seems highly unlikely there will be any upsets. So with that, I’m going to submit my final predictions for the Oscars. We won’t do all of them, of course. But we’ll cover the big ones, and throw in a few wild cards for dramatic effect.
Best Picture – “Oppenheimer “
In all fairness, “Oppenheimer” didn’t even crack my top 15 best films of 2023 (list here). I very much enjoyed the film (review here), and understand why it is getting the praise and why it is the clear front runner this year. I can appreciate great cinema without ranking it in my favorites. And from a craft perspective, “Oppenheimer” is a masterwork of skill and filmmaking. It is also the culmination of Christopher Nolan’s career. A magnum opus of vision without pretension (our at the very least, significantly less than “Tenet“) and the kind of career defining legacy that great directors work their whole lives to achieve.
It’s not the film I WANT to win; that’s reserved for “Past Lives” or “The Holdovers,” films I particularly found more emotionally engaging and overall enjoyed them more. But that’s not what I see winning, and truthfully this is “Oppenheimer’s” race to lose.
Best Actor – Cillian Murphy
Might as well buckle up for a few categories, because the “Oppenheimer” train isn’t going to slow down any time soon. My heart is rooting for Paul Giamatti to pull the upset, or even Jeffrey Wright to finally get his due, but this is a clear win for Cillian Murphy. The Academy loves a good biopic, and Murphy turned in an outstanding performance with eye-roll inducing imitation game we often see with musical biopics and impersonators. (I’m looking at you Mr. Malek for “Bohemian Rhapsody,” and no I will not stop dragging that win through the mud any chance I get.) While it would be wonderful to see someone like Giamatti take home the gold, losing to Murphy isn’t a bad thing. Particularly when Murphy is also giving a career-best performance and deserves to be recognized for it.
Paul’s just gonna have to take his Golden Globe back to In-N-Out again.
[Editor’s note: REALLY, really hoping for the upset here with Jeffrey Wright. It’s not gonna happen, but, he really deserves it.]
Best Supporting Actor – Robert Downey Jr.
Oh look, another win for “Oppenheimer.” Look, I think most of us are glad to see RDJr. take the gold, even if the Supporting Actor lineup has plenty of deserving contenders this year. And probably the most amount of “snubs” that missed the shortlist. The truth is, we love RDJr., the industry loves him, and most importantly, the Academy loves him. His unmatched charisma on and off screen paired with his exceptional campaign skills have all but cinched this for him. It’s really hard to root against him, even when I believe that other supporting roles were better overall. Who doesn’t want to see Iron Man win an Academy Award?
Best Director – Christopher Nolan
I promise we’ll put the “Oppenheimer” sweep in the above the line categories soon. I just think it’s best to get ’em all out up top so we can move on to more contentious categories. The almost complete shut out of female directors in a year where female directors made most of the best films of 2023 is a big blow, but if that’s how it’s going to be, then the only right answer is a Christopher Nolan win.
I know some are pulling for a Martin Scorsese here, but he has a rather strange relationship with the Academy. They already gave him the award for “The Departed,” and seem to have no intention of giving him another despite being one of the most nominated filmmakers in history. It’s a stacked category even without some of the deserving filmmakers left off the list, and while they’re all great films this is a Nolan lock.
Best Actress – Lily Gladstone
We can finally put “Oppenheimer” on the back burner for a minute. The Best Actress category is absolutely stacked, and one of the only categories that feels like there is a legitimate unknown winner. I think it’s a two horse race between Emma Stone for “Poor Things” and Lily Gladstone for “Killers of the Flower Moon.” While they’ve been trading blows throughout all of the precursors, I think this will be Gladstone’s night. I don’t think anyone would be upset if Stone took home another award, as her work in “Poor Things” is worthy of a golden statue. But there is a chance to make history here, and Gladstone is a more than worthy recipient to usher in that moment. A win for Gladstone is a much larger and much more important win across the board, and I for one would love to see it happen. This is where both heart and mind are picking together instead of apart. I’m on the Gladstone train until the wheels fall off!!
[Editor’s note: Not to mention, this MUCH DESERVED WIN would fulfill the prophecy of Gladstone being voted “Most Likely to Win an Oscar” by her high school.]
Best Supporting Actress – Da’Vine Joy Randolph
There has never been a more clear winner than Da’Vine Joy Randolph for “The Holdovers.” She is quite literally undefeated in every single major awards show this season. The actual ceremony feels more of a formality at this point. Randolph is so far ahead of her competition this year, and every speech has reveled up emotion and joy (no pun intended) to even the coldest of hearts. It’s a great win for a great performer, and I don’t care how many statues she’s held over the past few months, I’m looking forward to seeing Oscar Winner Da’vine Joy Randolph from here on out. This one’s a done deal, folks.
Let’s take a look at a few wild cards that I’m most intrigued by and give some winners for them. We’ll also finish with some prop bet predictions because why not?
Best International Feature – “The Zone of Interest”
To be fair, “The Zone of Interest” is not the film I want to win. That belongs to “The Teacher’s Lounge,” an absolute banger of a film I was lucky enough to see at TIFF. With “Anatomy of a Fall” entered into the Best Picture category and “The Taste of Things” not even making the shortlist, the path is clear for “Zone of Interest” win. There were some incredible contenders this year, and I think there were some incredible foreign films left off of the shortlist. But overall, this is where “The Zone of Interest” will get its due, even if that is at the expense of “The Teacher’s Lounge” one of my absolute favorite films of 2023. Heart and mind are not aligned here.
Best Original Screenplay – “Anatomy of a Fall”
This whole category (with the exception of “Maestro“) is all vibes. Honestly, I’d be perfectly fine with any one of these films taking him an Original Screenplay win. 4 out of 5 of the nominated films are some of my favorite films of the year, and some of the very best screenplays as well. I would love to seen a Celine Song for “Past Lives” win here, if for nothing else because I just want that film to take home something. But I wouldn’t mind Samy Birch for “May December” or David Hemmigson for “The Holdovers” taking home the gold either. This is a pick ’em for me across the board, and I think Justine Triet will take home a win in this category after blanking out in Director and Picture. There’s no “Oppenheimer” here so the category is actually interesting!
[Editor’s note: Still pretty pissed “Barbie” is considered adapted screenplay here, whereas every other awards show put it in original. Draw your own pink-tinged conclusions, but it’s still bullshit.]
Quick Prop Bet Predictions
– “Killers of the Flower Moon” will get the one lone Best Actress nomination and nothing else, despite being heavily nominated in most categories.
– “Maestro” will blank completely, losing in every single category it is nominated in.
– I betting the Over on 8+ wins for “Oppenheimer.” There’s just no stopping that train and fair or not, it’s going almost full sweep.
– Jimmy Kimmel will mention Aaron Rogers in his opening monologue at least once.
-[Editor’s note: Ryan Gosling performing “I’m Just Ken” will include a plethora of surprise cameos from other A-list actors getting in on the gag.]
The 96th Annual Academy Awards will take place Sunday, March 10th at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood, CA. Kimmel will host for the 4th time. The ceremony starts at 4pm (PT), and will air on ABC.
